We Have A Few Years To Get Our Fiscal House In Order Or We Go Into A Depression

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Americans’ Mistrust of Govt. Is Rational and Warranted, But Also Dangerous”

The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative,” Winston Churchill once said.The problem is “we’re in the process of exhausting all the alternatives pretty quickly,” says William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.A recent CBS/NY Times poll showed only 19% of respondents say they trust the government “to do what is right all or most of the time,” while 78% believed the government is run by special interests, not for the benefit of the people.”If current levels of trust don’t improve, I don’t see how Americans can be persuaded to make sacrifices now for a better future,” says Galston, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton. “We have a few years to get our fiscal house in order before things really get out of control in ways that will be hard to reel back – the early signs are not encouraging.”With public deficits soaring and stratospheric bailouts for banks and automakers,Galston isn’t saying mistrust of government is irrational or unwarranted, but it is dangerous for society.”Unless it’s corrected we’re going to have a very hard time doing what needs to be done in the next decade or two,” he said. “So I hope we’re on the threshold of doing the right thing, not because we want to but because we have to. “

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Deflation is Coming

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Faber and Mish – We’re Doomed and Washington Can’t Do Anything About It:

Washington is patting itself on the back for having orchestrated an amazing economic recovery. But Washington lawmakers are a delusional bunch of boneheads, say Marc Faber and Mike “Mish” Shedlock, editor of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report and investment advisor at SitkaPacific Capital Management, respectively.The economy is NOT recovering, they say, and the U.S. faces a depressing “eventuality” of either crushing deflation (Shedlock) or runaway inflation (Faber). The timing and type of this eventuality is uncertain, say the gurus, but they are certain it’s too late for America to change course.”It’s beyond repair — it’s too late,” to avert fiscal disaster, Faber declares.Mish agrees: “The day of reckoning has arrived. The question is how long it takes to play out.”This grim outlook doesn’t mean you’re helpless. Faber recommends individuals prepare for doomsday by buying gold, owning assets abroad and buying property outside of major cities.

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Inflation or deflation – or Both? Mish vs. Dr. Doom

Which is the greater threat, inflation or deflation?In Marc Faber and Michael “Mish” Shedlock, we found two market watchers ready (and able) to champion both sides of this great debate.Shedlock, an investment advisor with SitkaPacific Capital and author of the economics blog, MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis, made the case for deflation: Credit is contracting, despite Ben Bernanke’s best efforts to flood the financial system with liquidity.”The money supply is just sitting there as excess reserves on bank balance sheets,” Mish says. “Bernanke can print this money but unless it makes its way into the real economy we’re not going to see inflation.”In addition, he predicts “another leg down” in housing and commercial real estate, more consumer loan defaults, and notes state and local governments are (finally) cutting back on spending in the face of falling tax receipts and budget deficits. All these trends will contribute to the deflationary force of credit contraction, Mish declares.But Shedlock is missing one critical factor says Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report: “When the economy’s bad, governments pile up these fiscal deficits and they print money” to offset the deleveraging of the private sector, he says. “They’re going to print and print and print.”If the economy sours again and especially if deflationary forces take hold, we’ll have “even more stimulus packages and even more printing,” Faber says. “That will bankrupt western governments – not just in the U.S. but everywhere. “And by that, he means the dollar and other western currencies will collapse, leading to a bout of rising (if not hyper-) inflation around the globe, which will spur all manner of societal unrest and geopolitical strife. Now you know why they call him “Dr. Doom.”

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7 Good Reasons Why The Dollar Will Fall and Gold Rise

It’s time to provide some fundamental reasons as to why the dollar is in trouble long term and why the precious metals sector and the commodities sector stands to benefit from these dollar woes.

  1. The US has a massive current account deficit and it only seems to be getting bigger. Economists may play with the numbers by stating that one month is less than the other and so forth, but the trend is up. It now comes close to 6% of our total economic activity.
  2. The US needs to attract a whopping 1.8 billion dollars a day to compensate for the current account gap. This trend is simply unsustainable.
  3. While Government officials talk big about a strong dollar policy, they actually favour a weak dollar. This serves two purposes, it helps increase exports and it allows the government to pay its debt with lower valued dollars. As long as the Government continues to borrow at these mind boggling rates, it is going to unofficially favour a weak dollar.
  4. By inflating the money supply, the government is imposing a nefarious silent killer tax on the masses. The only way to hedge against this outright theft is to hedge yourself by getting into hard assets (precious metals, lumber, oil, etc).
  5. Our national debt is 12.4 trillion and increasing. However, this does not take into consideration all our unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare. If these are combined, the debt levels soar to well unimaginable levels.
  6. 44 states are facing budget shortfalls. California is leading the way as it is expected to spend 50% more than it will generate this year. Now that is a really scary thought. Since 2007 US states have collectively spent 300 billion more than they have generated. These deficits mean higher taxes and so far 33 states have raised taxes, but collections have plummeted to their worst levels in 46 years; you cannot squeeze water out of a rock. No jobs means no revenues but states are selling new bonds at record rates to raise funds. It’s a recipe for long term disaster.
  7. Eventually the Fed is going to have to raise rates to continue attracting the huge amounts of money it needs to function. Overseas investors are going to start demanding higher rates. Higher rates will kill this fragile economy. Precious metals thrive in a high interest rate environment. From a long term perspective the bull market in precious metals has only just begun.
About the author: Sol Palha

U Shaped or Double Dip – Economic Risks Are Rising

U.S. Growth Outlook:  Still Anemic and U-Shaped but Risks of a Double-Dip Recession Are Rising

by Nouriel Roubini

A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy in 2010 is headed for – at best – a U-shaped recovery. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic 2.7% growth which RGE forecast for H1. With the positive effects of the historic levels of fiscal stimulus due to fade this year, the U.S. faces at best a 1.5% growth rate in H2, which looks too close for comfort to a tipping point of a double-dip recession.