Greenspan’s Biggest Worry

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The Maestro – Alan Greenspan speaks – watch video here – We are doomed.
http://money.cnn.com/video/#/video/fortune/2007/09/17/fortune.greenspan.medicare.fortune 

Greenspan Warning

The former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has warned there is still a good chance the US economy will slip into a recession, despite this week’s cut to US interest rates.

Mr Greenspan said the odds of a recession remain somewhat more than one in three, with home prices likely to fall further and damage consumer spending.

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  16. The Bank of Japan caused the hsinuog bubble—but they were attempting, without success, to stop their own domestic HousingPanic. Greenspan was an accomplice in the crime instead of a watchdog.The problem isn’t just rates, but non-interest rate underwriting regulation and reserves.The Fed and OHFEO have plenty of regulatory authority over that, and they did absolutely nothing, just how Alan refused to raise margin requirements in the 1999 stock dot com bubble.He easily could have. Imagine—suppose in 1999 that Alan had done so. After the 1998 Asian stuff, the economy was doing fine, and equities were in an obvious bubble. Fall 1999, Greenspan raises minimum margin requirements by 10%, promising more hikes if needed. Brokers respond by reducing margin even more to the dot-bombs. Nasdaq gyrates, and eventually peaks at 4000 (not 5000) in March 2000.Internet stocks and employment go through a retrenchment, but not a nuclear winter.NASDAQ is 3700 on Election day 2000. Al Gore squeaks out an electoral vote victory with a significant popular vote win. Alan Greenspan quits. Bill Clinton gives him a pre-emptive pardon and Presidential Medal of Freedom.2001: Economy shows a modest cyclical slowdown centered around in technology, and new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reduces rates from 6% to an “accomodative” 3%. Summer 2001: Intelligence chatter picks up in mideast. “Bin Laden determined to strike USA.” National Security Adviser Wesley Clark brings together heads of departments, orders improvements in customs and FBI tracking of foreign nationals. FBI questions and deports three Saudi pilot students. FAA alerted, gives pilot’s advisory with reference to thwarted al-Qaeda “Bojinka” suicide plot. Crews ordered to resist middle eastern hijackers in groups and lock cockpit doors. Sept 11,2001. Breathless media report two attempted hijackings of American jets. In one, hijackers kill two flight attendants but crew diverts to military base. SWAT and Delta Force surround aircraft. After 24 hours bomb threat is deemed unreliable, hijackers and two passengers killed during raid. In second, hijackers storm the cockpit during landing approach, plane crashes just short of runway in struggle, 87 killed. Surviving, wounded hijacker implicates Khalid Sheik Mohammed.

  17. when you’re looking tgourhh smoke and mirrors things can seem fine. the fact is that banks are hiding trillions of dollars in questionable assets in off-balance-sheet SIV’s (similar to the accounting scheme that brought Enron down).”WILMINGTON, Del., July 30 (Reuters) – The Financial Accounting Standards Board, which sets U.S. accounting rules, voted on Wednesday to delay accounting changes that would affect trillions of dollars in off-balance sheet assets at banks and financial companies.Reversing an earlier decision to make some parts of the rule change effective at the end of this year, FASB members voted that the rule should take effect all at once, for reporting periods after Nov. 15, 2009.FASB voted in April to revamp two accounting standards known as FAS 140 and FIN 46R, to eliminate a concept known as the “qualifying special-purpose entity,” or QSPE, that banks use to keep assets like mortgage-backed securities and special investment vehicles off their balance sheets.”

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