The Cash Advantage (Even When Rates Are Low)

NY Times

Published: March 16, 2008

ALTHOUGH short-term interest rates have been dropping, many advisers still recommend that investors hold plenty of cash — and that they keep it in safe and simple accounts. “The biggest mistake people make is reaching for yield and putting their capital at risk,” said David Darst, the chief investment strategist of the global wealth management group of Morgan Stanley. “They should think of cash as their safe harbor.”

Over the last year, Mr. Darst has raised his recommended allocation to cash several times. Morgan Stanley now advises individual investors to hold 16 percent of their portfolios in cash, up from 5 percent a year ago.

And Mr. Darst said that cash really means cash — with nothing fancy about it. He suggests putting this money into some combination of money market mutual funds, short-term certificates of deposit or Treasury bills. Continue reading

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CNNMoney.com – Interest Rates Tumble

CNN Money

CNNMoney.com
The bond yield tumble, and the economy
Monday March 24, 7:15 am ET
By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large

Bond yields have plunged in the past few weeks. And even if you are not an active investor, you should care about what’s been going on in the bond markets lately. Here’s why.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury currently stands at about 3.33%, down from nearly 4% about a month ago. The rate on this long-term government note is a key factor behind what happens to fixed-rate mortgages.

If rates continue to fall, they could hit not only a new low for the year – the 10-year briefly touched 3.28% in January – but could come close to falling below the 3.07% level they hit in June 2003, which was a 45-year low at the time. Continue reading

Economic Update – March 9,2008

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  • Housing Foreclosures hit an all time high of 0.83% of all mortgages nationwide.

  • Over 5.8% of homeowners were behind in their mortgage payments, the largest number in more than two decades.

  • House prices lost a staggering 8.9% in 2007 – and they’re still dropping.

  • The supply of unsold houses rose to 4 million, or to over a 10 month’s supply.Homeowners’ equity fell below 50% for the first timesince 1945, hitting a new low of 47.9%. As Barry Ritholtz expressed, never before have banks and other various and sundry lenders owned more of the average American’s house than they do.

  • For February 2008 – the economy lost 63,000 jobs. That means 63,000 people lost their job in one month. Actually, the number was 101,000 people who lost their jobs in February, but the government hired 38,000 just to make the numbers look better.

  • In January 2008 – the consumer price index, the widely reported statistic used to measure inflation, rose 4.3% from January 2006.

  • According to John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, he comes up with a reading of 11.8% inflation for the January CPI calculation. With oil at $106-a- barrel and every kind of commodity up 30% or more (aluminum, oats, silver-hit a 27 year high recently), and double-digit gains in other commodities such as, coffee, corn, wheat, zinc, etc. This just makes more sense than the economic statistics given to us by the government.